Guides·Published September 12, 2026

FY2027 Fair Market Rents: 28.1% of counties went down

HUD published the FY2027 Fair Market Rents on September 1, 2026 (notice 91 FR 56156). They take effect October 1. The national median two-bedroom FMR rose 3.5% — and in 1,338 counties it fell.

The headline number hides the story

Across 4,758 counties, the median county’s two-bedroom FMR rose 3.5%. But the median FMR itself barely moved — $1,224 to $1,227, about a third of a percent.

Those are two different measurements and the gap between them is the point. The first is the middle of all the changes. The second is the middle of all the rents. They disagree because this was not a year where everything drifted up together: 3,416 counties rose, 1,338 fell, and 611 rose by 10% or more. The distribution pulled apart at both ends while its centre stayed put.

Weighted by population the increase is smaller still, +2.4% — meaning the big increases landed disproportionately in smaller counties. Non-metro counties came in at a 4.0% median against 3.2% for metro ones.

112 counties landed on exactly −10.0%

That is not a coincidence and it is the most useful thing in the data. HUD limits how far an area’s FMR can fall in a single year. When you see a county at exactly −10.0%, you are not looking at a market that cooled by ten percent — you are looking at a market whose measured rents fell by more than that, with the published number stopped at the floor.

For anyone underwriting in one of those 112 counties, the implication is uncomfortable: the FMR is currently above where the data says it should be, and the gap has to close in later years unless local rents recover.

Biggest increases

Counties over 150,000 people, ranked by two-bedroom change.

Biggest decreases

Markets voucher investors actually buy in

Two neighbours can move in opposite directions. FMRs are set per FMR area, not per county — several counties usually share one metro area and therefore one number — so the question is never “what did my state do”, it is “what did my FMR area do”.

Every state, population-weighted

44 states and territories rose on a population-weighted basis; the rest fell.

What this actually changes for a landlord

An FMR is not a rent. It is the input a public housing authority uses to set its payment standard, which is what a voucher will actually pay toward. PHAs set that standard within a basic range of 90% to 110% of the published FMR, and some run higher with HUD approval. Two PHAs reading the same FMR can land on materially different payment standards.

So the FMR change is the direction of travel, not the number to underwrite on. Before you buy on a rent assumption, confirm the actual payment standard the PHA covering that address has adopted for the bedroom count you are buying — and confirm when they adopt the new one, because the timing is theirs, not HUD’s.

A falling FMR also does not reach into an existing lease on its own. Changes flow through at the tenant’s regular reexamination, on the PHA’s schedule.

Method and sources

Figures computed 2026-09-12 from HUD’s own county-level files — HUD FY2027 and FY2026 county-level FMR files (FY27_FMRs.xlsx, FY26_FMRs.xlsx) — joined on county FIPS code. 4,758 counties matched across both years. All changes are two-bedroom FMR, the standard reference bedroom count. “Population-weighted” uses the population column HUD ships in each file. State figures are population-weighted across that state’s counties. Gainer and loser tables are limited to counties over 150,000 people, because a small county’s FMR can swing on a thin sample.

Primary sources: HUD FMR datasets and the FY2027 notice at 91 FR 56156. This analysis is not endorsed by or affiliated with HUD.

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